There’s a common saying in baseball, you can’t win your division in a month but you can lose it. We’ve just turned the calendar over to May, let’s take a closer look at who has set up their season for success and who has already played their way out of contention.
Played Their Way to Contention
Red Sox
The season start was slow in Boston, opening with the worst start in Fenway Park in decades. But after getting swept by the Orioles they turned things around. Their slow start was due to poor performance at the plate, thy quickly turned that around and ended April leading the AL in batting average, hits, doubles, runs, and total bases. Can they keep it up? Maybe for the regular season, but they’ll need to kick it up a notch pitching if they plan on making a deep run in the playoffs. The Red Sox have done fairly good in ERA and strikeouts, but they’re walking too many and are getting timely outs. They’re walking a razors edge between good defense and getting burned by those walks.
Royals
Kansas City to me is the biggest surprise of the teams leading their division at the end of month one. The key to their success is winning 1 run games, going 5-1 in those games. They’re also bringing back small ball in a world where home runs are king – they’ve hit the fewest in the league but are leading in triples and stolen bases. In the more under-appreciated stats of gdp’s and sac hits they’re leading the American League. Looking into their future, they might make a run to win the Central Division – their pitching is leading saves and giving up the second fewest home runs. Similar to Boston though, they’re walking a lot of batters being second in walks per nine innings.
A’s
The Oakland Athletics had about as bad a start as you can to your season – they lost the first 5 games of they year before getting a notch in the win column. It’s hard to finish on top of your division with a start like that, but getting a 12 game winning streak in the middle of the month definitely helps. On offense they did it by taking a page from their last World Series Season – mixing the long ball with stolen bases. Nothing about their defense is standing out, so the A’s might be the biggest beneficiary of playing the right teams at the right time – one of their series was agains the Twins right as they lost about half their team with COVID.
Brewers
Nothing flashy, just consistency for the Brewers to start the year. Their only stats that stand out on the offensive and defensive side is strikeouts. They haven’t been swept yet, but have only got one series sweep so far this year. Consistency has been the key to them finishing with one of the best records at month’s end. It’s hard to say if they can keep this up, something has to give – the wins either regress to the mean or their stats improving from the middle of the pack.
Dodgers
No surprise here, the Dodgers picked up right where they’ve left off the past couple of years. Last year’s World Series Champions are getting hits and walks on offense and they’re striking out batters while avoiding giving out free passes. They’ve proved they have the lineup to keep this going, they know the game they play and they play it well. Barring any injuries they should be in the postseason once again.
Giants
I know I said the Royals are the biggest surprise, but the Giants are the most surprising team to me in the National League. One reason they’re seeing success though is they’ve had two series agains the Rockies already, and the Rockies look to be cellar dwellers this year. Their offense has been abysmal – they have the second worst batting average in the NL. They’re getting their wins though with good pitching, they have the second best ERA, third hits, seconds fewest runs, most shutouts, and third fewest home runs. Good pitching always beats good hitting, so if they keep this up they might sneak into the wild card.
Played Their Way Out
Tigers
The highlight of the Tiger’s season may have been in Miguel Cabrara’s first at bat of the season when he hit a home run in the snow on opening day. It’s been pretty much downhill ever since. They’re already struggling to stay above .300! Its hard to have a worse start than Detroit has had, and it’s likely cost them this season. Another long rebuilding summer is ahead for them.
Twins
This might be the biggest surprise in the wrong way to start the season. The good news for the Twins is there’s still 5 months left to turn things around. And at least a few of these loses could be blamed on missing key players with COVID for a week and a half. The bad news is they’ve had a terrible bullpen this year, coming into the season pitching was expected to be one of their strong suits but they keep giving away leads late and losing in extra innings. Their offense has been feast or famine so far, but if they get some consistency there is a chance they can give their bullpen a few extra buffer runs to relieve pressure. Are they going to turn things around? I’m a true Minnesota sports fan, so I have to say it won’t happen.
Rockies
The Rockies started the season behind the 8 ball to even have a chance at making the playoffs. They’ve got the juggernaut Dodgers in their division and then the Padres go and load up their roster in the offseason, so before the season started they were fighting for third place and a wild card slot. Add in the fact that the Giants are looking good, the Rockies are just trying to find a way to rebuild this season. Ace pitcher Jon Gray is still getting strikeouts but giving up too many walks to be game changer he’s been in past years. I’m not going to be surprised if he gets traded come the end of July.
It’s been a fun first month of the season, we’ve already had a no-hitter and a controversial one that didn’t count. The stolen base seems to have made its way back to the game and I’m all for it. There’s a long way to go in the season still, but I’m expecting some good things to come from it.