I know I’m in the minority on this one, but I think it’s pretty risky drafting a quarterback early in the first round. My main reason stems from the old adage that for a receiver to catch a pass he needs 10 other players to do their job before he can finish the play. Also, I believe in the classic “defense wins championships” mantra. That means there’s 21 other regular players that need to be squared away as well as the quarterback. The problem with drafting a quarterback early is that you need to be certain that they’re going to be a star to justify the cost. But the numbers show they’re anything but guaranteed to be great – like most other positions.
Let’s start with the numbers – over the past 20 years there’s an average of 12 quarterbacks drafted each year. Over the same time there’s been an average of 3 quarterbacks drafted in the first round. However, that trend is going up, while the total number isn’t changing. Over the past 5 years there’s been an average of 3.6 drafted in the first round. Apart from the fact that there’s still a risk that the player won’t develop the way a team hopes, there’s the cost involved. The NFL is the most exciting league because of the parity they’ve created with a strict salary cap. As soon as you pay a high price for a quarterback you take away payment you can give to a better player at another position. In 2019 the average guaranteed pay for a first round pick was nearly $17 million. The same year, the second round average guaranteed dropped to $3.7 million. It is a gamble though to wait until after the first round to pick a quarterback. Of the top 15 quarterbacks from 2020 as rated by NFL.com only 4 were drafted after the first round. But even if you wait until after the 10th pick you’re now taking about half the cap hit as the first overall pick. If you’re wondering how many of the top quarterbacks are drafted after the 10th pick – it’s 8 of those top 15. So it’s much better odds.
The funny thing about these numbers is they don’t change when you look at the next 15 on NFL.com’s list of quarterbacks. 9 of the next 15 are picked after the 10th pick and 7 are after the first round. These aren’t quarterbacks that will turn your franchise around. These are the ones that you’re hoping will develop still or looking to move on from in the next year. If you have one of these quarterbacks on your team you don’t want to be sacrificing a big hit to your salary cap. They’re not a Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers that will get you to a game winning drive (both of those were drafted 10th or later for what it’s worth). If you have one of these quarterbacks your team’s success is determined on the other 21 players on the offense and defense.
So if a high draft pick doesn’t mean the quarterback will be in the top half of the league where’s the sweet spot to pick a quarterback. The more accurate way of drafting a quarterback might be going by the number of quarterbacks off the board. A lot is made about Tom Brady being a 6th round pick, but he was only the 6th quarterback off the board. For the top 5, 10, and even top 20 quarterbacks they average as the 3rd quarterback taken. Of course that’s just the average, if you look at the most frequent picks it comes back to 1st quarterback or 3rd quarterback selected. Of the those top 15 quarterbacks it’s 4 taken as the first quarterback off the board and 4 taken as the 3rd quarterback off the board. Add in the hit to the cap, 3rd quarterback off the board is probably the smart move.
The last 5 drafts account for 6 of the top 15 quarterbacks from last year. Sounds good right? But, in that same time though there were 18 quarterbacks drafted in the first round alone. That means to get a quality quarterback it’s still only a 1 in 3 chance that they’ll be an above average quarterback. Those are pretty low odds for something people consider the most important position. It’s also pretty low success rate for anything taken in the first half of the first round.
As fans we want the best results on the field. But owners want only one result – money. The marketing football has done over the past 20 years it’s shifted almost entirely to the quarterback. You frequently hear the talking heads say the most important position in all of sports is the quarterback. So from a money standpoint you can see why teams keep taking quarterbacks early in the draft. The marketing around quarterbacks is easy, it draws in fans. As fans though we need to see that it’s mostly fluff and that a high priced quarterback doesn’t mean results on the field. Add in the unproven nature from the draft you get a high priced risk that could set back your team several years. Even if your team needs a quarterback, GMs need to look at trading back if they can’t get the top quarterback. Try to get the 3rd or something in the second half of the first round. Use those early picks to build up the other positions and hope next year you can land in that sweet spot for a quarterback that won’t sacrifice the quality of the players around him. The obsession with quarterbacks is all about teams marketing to make owners money. It’s banking on their marketing over the results on the field. Don’t fall for that trap.