Baseball, Soccer, and NBA Play In Games
I try to approach my betting with a system. I hate the “eye test” but sometimes I will resort to that. Those are my emotional bets though. My main way about approaching betting, and my more successful method, is to approach betting with a more analytical approach. In trading they refer to it as technical analysis. My betting approach is similar. I’m also bad at picking one specific game that will be a win, but over enough games I’ll win more than I lose. I refer to this as more of a Day Trading approach to betting. I don’t care which game I win or lose, but care about winning more than I lose. All that being said, here’s my picks for the day.
Soccer
The Champions League games are the biggest ones on the schedule. I’m terrible at betting cross leagues, so I stay away from these games. Here’s the slate I’ll be betting on.
Bulgarian Vtora Liga – CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Hebar
Hebar is much higher in the standings, but they’re playing on the road agains CSKA 1948 Sofia. Looking closer to the home and away records they’re basically the same. However, CSKA Sofia has been on a 3 game home winning streak – that makes me lean away from them. Looking at the odds I’m getting Hebar is coming in at +215 so I’m taking the hedge bet for the spread. Hebar 0, +0.5 at -122 odds is my take.
Australian A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar
Melbourne is at the top of the table and at home, Brisbane is at the bottom. Brisbane has a terrible road record with just one win and two draws. Fortunately the odds are just within what I’m willing to take with a favorite. That makes this an easy pick for me to take Melbourne at -150.
NBA Play-in Games
Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers
#7 vs #8 in the east. You’d think it would be a difficult pick since they had identical records on the season. But Brooklyn is 31-21 in conference games and Cleveland is a much better team at home than on the road. At home they’re dominant at 25-16 but on the road they have a losing record. The odds makers are much more confident than me on this one – giving Brooklyn -480 on the money line and a 9.5 point spread. I’m going to take Cleveland on the spread.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers
The west is almost the exact same story but with different teams. Minnesota dominates at home and have a great record against conference foes. That makes me think they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since Hurricane Jimmy tore through town several years ago. I’m doubling down – taking Minnesota -3.0 points and -145 money line.
Major League Baseball
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland
I refuse to acknowledge the name Guardians because it sounds much better suited for an XFL team or a Roller Derby team. But Cleveland had to play yesterday and then travel, I’m thinking the Reds fresh and on their home opener should be enough to get them the win. Reds Even money.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
The Pirates might not be the worst team in the league, but they’re right up there with the worst of the worst. The Cubs aren’t the best, but they had a scheduled day off yesterday and that should be enough to help them spoil the Pirate’s home opener. Cubs – 120
St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals
This one comes down to rest – the Cardinals had their game cancelled yesterday and the Royals, while not having to travel very far down I-70 still had to play yesterday then make the trip. St Louis also lost their last time out, so that makes me think they’re prime for a win today. Cardinals -180
Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies
There’s not much logic to this pic other than the fact that the Rangers were horrible last year and they don’t seem to have much of a bullpen so far this year. Rockies +129
I’m Parlaying those first 4 MLB games together for a +1200 payoff as well.
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
There was no logic on this pick. I just wanted some action on the afternoon games. Hope and pray for the Mariners to win. Mariners +108
Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
Boston didn’t have the runs to hold off Detroit late. But I think they’re likely the better team and don’t see them losing back to back series to start the season. Red Sox -125