Let’s ride this Cinderella story out. Make it be the most improbable championship run, possibly in any sport, but certainly for college basketball. If the Peacocks do the improbable, this will beat out the Jimmy V NC State championship in 1983, it’ll beat out the Texas Western championship in the midst of UCLA dominance. This will be a story so unlikely that Air Bud looks more realistic by comparison. But what got us here? How did a small Catholic school from New Jersey make it 3 wins away from a National Championship.
Two weeks ago when everyone first started filling out their bracket, there was consensus. That’s never a good sign. The consensus was that Gonzaga and Arizona were going to be in the National Championship game, the rest of this was just a formality to get to that point. There’s a reason we play the games. Both teams were ousted on Thursday within hours of each other. That leaves us with just a single #1 seed. There’s still two #2 seeds, a #4 and a #5 seed, a #8 seed, a #10 seed, and of course St Peter’s as the lowest remaining seed left at #15. What’s that show you? There was a huge disparity in the teams this year – there wasn’t a clearcut top like there is most seasons. If any of the talking heads filling out their bracket disagreed with the Arizona/Gonzaga championship – they would have agreed that there were only about 8 teams that had a chance. Logically that means that the highest remaining seed in any of the 4 brackets would be a 3 at worst. That’s not what happened.
There’s some major flaws in the way the tournament committee decides to rank teams entering the tournament. The commentators on tv give out teasers – “last four in” “first four out” – if you have no idea what this means it sounds like these are the teams playing for the 16th seed. Not the case though – they’re usually playing for a seed somewhere around #12. It’s a nonsensical system. It inflates certain teams – the major conference teams. While lowering the seed for others – teams like St Peter’s. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying St Peter’s should have been a #8 seed like North Carolina or Miami – though their records were only a couple wins and losses different. What I’m saying is the committee relies on the “eye test” a bit too much. They look at the reputation of a school more than they look at what they’ve done for the season. It’s a bias radar – they mostly watch major conference games, so they don’t see the conferences that play games in gyms smaller than most high school gyms. I’m a degenerate gambler though, I’ll be on any game.
Generally, I find the smaller conference games give you more chances to beat the book. I was wrong most the year this year. But that strategy paid me well last year. St Peter’s always sticks out when I’m betting on games – their mascot’s a Peacock it’s silly and hard to miss. The problem I had this year is they kept winning, and worse, their odds were so heavily favored towards them I hardly got to bet on them. So I had an idea they’d be good. I had no idea though they’d be this good. But, I had my eye on them so I wasn’t that shocked when they beat Kentucky (only reason I didn’t pick them to win is because I thought there was no chance for a 15 to beat a 2 in back to back years – coulda-woulda-shoulda gets you nothing though). Then again when they beat Murray State. Or when they beat Purdue. But I had them beating the spread in all of these games.
There’s 32 conferences in D1 college basketball. Generally we pay attention to the Power 5 football – ACC, SEC, Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12 – and the Power 5 Basketball – American, A10, Big East, WCC, and Mountain West (the last two are debatable even). That leaves us with 22 conferences that are completely ignored – until a UMBC upsets the #1 seed or a Loyola Chicago or George Mason make the Final Four. Even then though, we only pay attention to them for a short time, and usually just pay attention to the team. There’s good basketball in all these 22 conferences though. In the MAAC specifically (St Peter’s Conference) they have Iona, Rick Pittino’s new team he coached to an NCAA berth last season. But they have more balance than any other conference – the worst team still won 7 conference games. To compare that with the ACC, 4 wins, and Big East had Georgetown, who managed to go winless in the conference this year. Essentially, the Peacocks couldn’t take a night off all season – and they really haven’t since February. That’s surely helped them get to this position now in the Elite Eight.
Looking ahead at what the Peacocks need to finish off the greatest Cinderella run of all time. They first will be facing North Carolina. A team that’s had some ups and downs but has looked great ever since they beat Coach K to ruin his Cameron Indoor Stadium farewell. They crushed Marquette in the biggest win for an 8-9 game in tournament history. They beat Baylor, the defending national champions in overtime. Then they come on strong late in the 2nd half to beat UCLA. What needs to happen for St Peter’s, really more of the same. Good guard play, excellent free throw shooting, embrace the moment. Will it happen? Sure, why not.
The Final Four matchup it’s either a trip of destiny for Duke and Coach K or it’s Arkansas who somehow manages to win each of their games in close fashion. What does that mean for St Peter’s, well it’s either a bad zoo exhibit with Hogs and Peacocks, or it’s a storybook matchup. Can they win over either of these teams? Absolutely – they just need to keep shooting well and stay out of foul trouble. The most generic key to the game ever.
If they make it to the championship they have one of 4 teams to face. The low seeded Miami, the second tier conference teams remaining – Houston or Villanova, or the lone #1 seed Kansas. What’s the good thing about this – well these teams will beat each other up. St Peter’s somehow seems to avoid the physical games, not that they back down – they just play well to avoid getting beaten by it. So if that continues, they should be in good shape for the improbable win. Who will they play? Not sure, but the storybook ending would be to go through three historic powerhouses in a row to win. North Carolina, Duke, then Kansas. If that happens there’ll be a Disney movie out next year about this team.
Is there a chance? Well in boxing they say there’s a puncher’s chance. In basketball it’s a shooter’s chance. And the key to winning in the Tournament is guard play. St Peter’s has all that going for them right now. So F*** it, St Peter’s for the National Championship.