Baseball today, more than any other sport and any other time is driven by statistics and probability. It’s the biggest complaint about the game today. It’s all about the home run and the strike out. People keep floating the idea of banning shifts to allow more hits through the infield. There doesn’t need to be a rule change though, there just needs to be players and coaches challenge to easily this status quo. They need to take add more variables to these shifts. One way to do this is to steal bases. Sure the probabilities say it’s inefficient. Using the new conventional wisdom the only base worth stealing is second. And even the numbers don’t say it pays off enough. But that’s all on paper. The reality of the matter is baserunning needs to challenge the shift positions – add a variable to these statistics.
With that preface, we come to Thursday night in the playoffs. The Rays against the Red Sox, game one of the ALDS. It’s the bottom of the 7th inning, the Rays have runners on 2nd and 3rd. Two outs on a 1-2 count. The Red Sox are playing the shift to get the final out. They’re so focused on the final out they pay no attention to the runners. Why would they, no one has stolen home since 2016 in the playoffs. It’s not something that happens. But when you position Third Baseman Rafael Devers in a spot better suited for a short stop and have left handed pitcher, reliever Josh Taylor, the table is set for that streak to end. Add in a gutsy rookie in Randy Arozarena and you’ve got the perfect combination for the most exciting play in baseball.
Guts. That’s what it takes to steal home more than any other quality. Of course when I refer to stealing home I’m talking about a straight steal. Catching the pitcher off guard to make the 90 foot run from third base to home before the pitcher can throw it 60 feet 6 inches. To think you have the ability to run a farther distance in a shorter time than it takes a pitcher to throw a shorter distance takes a huge amount of guts. The second aspect is timing. First of all, you have to find yourself on third. Not an easy task. You have to find the right time when the pitcher isn’t paying attention to you too. You can’t just steal as they’re staring you down, a baserunner will lose that battle every time.
That combination makes stealing home a marvelous feat. Unfortunately it’s not an official stat, so it’s difficult to track down every time it’s happened in MLB history. Unofficially the all time leader in stealing home is Ty Cobb. The epitome of guts (or arrogance) in baseball. Rickey Henderson has the the most stolen bases all time. In fact he has 509 more stolen bases than Ty Cobb. Henderson had more stolen bases in his record setting year than any team had in 2021. 130 for Rickey compared to 126 for the 2021 Royals. But, Rickey only stole home 4 times. That’s 50 times fewer than what Ty Cobb did in his career. Guts and timing weigh more than skill when it comes to stealing home.
It’s no secret, stealing home is a lost art. The last player to record 10 home base thefts in a career was Paul Molitor – and his career was finished before most of today’s players were born. However, we’re in an era that it should thrive. You keep hearing old baseball guys talk about bunting out the shift. But what about running out the shift. Thursday’s game showed just that. The shift may prevent the hit, but do it at your own peril when runners are on the basepath. You heard John Smoltz say it during the broadcast that the rule of thumb is a runner can get as far from the base as the fielder. Devers playing halfway between second and third gave Arozarena the chance to go halfway between third and home. Bad news when you have a lefty on the mound. Add in a 4-0 lead and an unsuspecting count then you get fireworks.
I think it’s safe to say that Arozarena’s steal was the play of the night, and for sure the play of the postseason thus far. Sure walk-off home runs are fun, but nothing gets a crowd going like stealing home. As soon as you hear the play-by-play call out “There goes Arozarena” people are jumping off their couches in excitement. I know I did. It’s the most exciting play. Maybe because of its rarity. Maybe because of how brazen it is. Maybe because it’s a pure athletic play. No matter what may be the case, it should see a comeback. You just need the combination of a gutsy player, the perfect timing, and the overuse of the shift. That timing thing will still be tough, but guts might be easier to come by when teams over-shift. Either way, we saw a fantastic play to cap off a fantastic postseason thus far.