College football is the sport with the smallest room for error. Most years if you want to contend for the National Championship you need to finish with a perfect record. This year though, things might change. The CFP might only have one team with an undefeated record, and it might not be who you’d expect.
Right now, through 4 weeks, there are only 25 undefeated teams. 2 in the American, 2 in the ACC, 3 in the Big 12, 5 in the Big Ten, 1 in C-USA, 3 Independents, 2 in the Mountain West, 1 in the Pac 12, 5 in the SEC, and 1 in the Sun Belt. 25 teams so far might seem pretty good for this point in the season, but they’re spread fairly even across conferences and there’s still two months left in the season. Let’s take out the Group of 5 schools, except Cincinnati. That leaves 19 teams left with an undefeated record thus far, with a chance at making the Playoff.
Here’s realistically how the season can wind up, as far as undefeated teams are concerned (before conference championship games). American – 1 team, ACC – 1 team, Big 12 – 1 team, Big Ten – 2 teams, Independents – 3 teams, Pac 12 – 1 team, and the SEC – 2 teams. Here’s a closer look at each team’s chance to go undefeated.
American – SMU and Cincinnati
It’s really irrelevant if SMU goes undefeated, they’re still unranked and will get the UCF treatment for the playoff if they run the table. However, Cincinnati is undefeated thus far and is the only hope for the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff. I’m feeling optimistic they’ll be able to pull it off. It might now be pretty every week, but they’ve got a solid change at running the table.
ACC – Wake Forest and Boston College
Don’t look now, but Wake Forrest is ranked in the top 25. Boston College isn’t. Either of these teams make a deep run at an undefeated season and they’ll flirt with the playoff, but likely will end up on the outside looking in – think Texas A&M the past couple of years. The ACC has been pretty weak outside of Clemson the past couple years. The Clemson dominance was able to mask the shortcomings of the conference the last couple years. Two early losses makes the ACC be relegated to the Pac 12 in their playoff prospects. Boston College and Wake Forest are in the same division, so only one can finish the season undefeated. But I’m not holding my breath that either will be able to make it through to the other side.
Big 12 – Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Oklahoma is getting the blue blood treatment so far. They haven’t looked impressive despite their undefeated record. I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost in the Red River Showdown or really any other game against the top half of the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Baylor are both in the same boat right now. They’re both just getting the respect they deserve with their unblemished records thus far. However, only one team can make it the entire way unscathed and I think the most likely team to do it is from Oklahoma – either OU or Ok State.
Big 10 – Iowa, Penn State, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
Four teams in the East and one team in the West. Sounds about right for the Big Ten. Let’s knock out Michigan State, Penn State, and Maryland right away. Michigan State barely survived agains Nebraska, who seems to be exposing ranked teams, Penn State doesn’t look that hot after narrowly beating Wisconsin and Auburn – both wins don’t look as good as they would have over the summer. That leaves Michigan and Iowa – Iowa is doing the bare minimum to get by, but the West isn’t the gauntlet that the east is so they “should” have the better chance at going undefeated. However, they haven’t had an undefeated team in about 15 years so going by that trend it’s likely they’ll fall somewhere along the lines. That leaves just Michigan with a chance, but Harbaugh would have to shake that monkey off his back and finally beat Ohio State. I’d give Iowa the edge of the likely teams to finish undefeated, but not expecting any here.
Independents – BYU, Notre Dame, Army
The Independents aren’t a real conference so that really relegates Army to a Group of 5 school and knocks them out even if they finish the season undefeated. That leaves just BYU and Notre Dame as the contenders from this group. BYU has to face Boise State, Baylor, and USC still. They’ve got a couple of cupcake teams in between but so far only Baylor looks like they’ll be for real this season. So by Halloween we’ll know if they have what it takes for a perfect season or not. Notre Dame on the other hand only has Cincinnati and USC that is scary on their schedule. So we’ll know by next week if they’ll have a shot at a perfect record. They did win the ACC last year, so maybe they’ll be able to put together back to back unblemished regular seasons. Neither schedule for BYU or Notre Dame is overly tough, so let’s just give them both the benefit of the doubt and give them undefeated seasons.
Pac 12 – Oregon
The Pac 12 is down this year. So it’s all in Oregon’s hands if they’ll finish without a loss. Still, it’s hard win against any conference foe. But this might be the most likely team to finish with a perfect record in a Power 5 conference. I don’t think it will happen, for some reason a bad Pac 12 team always shows up at the worst time and ruins the fun for the top teams in this conference.
SEC – Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama
This is where most eyes are on for a perfect season. Alabama has demanded that for the past decade. For some reason though when they are just a little down they fall to teams like Ole Miss – and that might happen again this year. Kiffen has a defense and knows how to score on Saban’s teams. If Bama survives this week their biggest test will be agains Arkansas. The Razorbacks have looked tough this year. Showing they’re the old Southwest Conference champion this year beating both A&M and Texas already. But they’ll have to match up against Georgia this weekend to show they deserve the praise they’ve gotten thus far. Winning against three ranked teams in 4 weeks is a tall order though, especially on the road agains Georgia. The Bulldogs have a fairly easy regular season schedule, if they make it past Arkansas. They do that and they’ll likely go undefeated. Kentucky didn’t look good against a bad South Carolina team so they’re the long shot here to finish undefeated. In the end the favorites should emerge – Georgia and Alabama, if any team, will go undefeated.
Breaking it down that only gives us Cincinnati, BYU, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama as teams with a really good chance at finishing perfect. All these teams will have a shot at the playoff but really only three at best will make it with an undefeated record. My pics are Cincy, BYU, Notre Dame, and Alabama. But it won’t be those four in the playoff. Notre Dame, Georgia, Alabama, and Cincy are likely the four to make it as it stands today. Only time will tell though if even that many will finish with a perfect record at the end of the season.