Since 2016 it’s been pretty easy to pencil in 3 of the 4 teams in the College Football Playoff. You knew that it was going to be some combination of Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio State. For the first time since though, it looks like we’ll have a different combination.
Parity in College Football isn’t something that happens. While in the NFL almost any team on a given year has a chance at the playoffs. It’s what helps draws the fans in. College football on the other hand thrives off tradition. Traditional powerhouses, bowls, pagentry, it’s all about the tradition in the college game. That being said, College football does operate in cycles. Some teams can have them last longer than others – Alabama the past decade plus, Clemson the past 5 years, Nebraska from the 70s through the 90s, Miami from the 80s through early 2000s… the list goes on. The point is cycles happen, sometimes they’re long, sometimes they’re incredibly dominant, that combination makes it difficult to predict when one cycle is finished and another team is stepping up to take its place.
This year is one of those clear transition years – the blue bloods Clemson, Ohio State, and even Oklahoma to a lesser extent have all faltered this year. In an era where you almost have to finish the regular season with a perfect record for a shot at the playoffs Clemson and Ohio State have had their playoff dreams dashed with an early season loss for each. Sure they’ll probably get the benefit of the doubt, but I won’t be surprised if they each lose another game down the road.
Lets take a look at the top 10 in the rankings – since this is likely where the playoff teams will come from – to see who can replace these powers and start a new cycle.
Alabama and Georgia are in the driver’s seat. As long as these two teams combine for only one loss, in the SEC Championship Game, they’ll make the playoff. Oregon and Oklahoma sit in the same position, and control their own destiny. However, I don’t think either will finish the season unscathed. So far for Oklahoma close wins over Tulane and Nebraska aren’t exactly giving me confidence in them. For Oregon their win over Fresno State might look more impressive than their win over Ohio State at the end of the season, but they’ve had a tendency to disappoint over the past few seasons, so I need them to show me something different. On top of the early results, both conferences look fairly unimpressive thus far. So I think that hurts both their chances at making the top four – unless they remain perfect.
Next up we’ve got the Big Ten making an appearance with their top two contenders, at least according to the rankings. Iowa is my favorite to win the Big Ten, granted they usually have one dumbfounding game under Kirk Ferentz, I have confidence in them avoiding that this year. Wisconsin is usually the favorite for the division, but losing to Penn State at Camp Randall makes me think Iowa can do the same thing the Nittany Lions did. Penn State does have two big, on paper, wins agains Wisconsin and Auburn. But let’s not kid ourselves, Auburn isn’t anything to write home about this year either. I think they’ll go into Kinnick and lose to the Hawkeyes in October, which would put Iowa in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten outright.
That brings us to the last of the undefeated teams in the top 10, Texas A&M and Cincinnati. Texas A&M had their team exposed this past weekend. Not in the game they played, but in the game against their top opponent thus far. A&M was only able to beat Colorado by a field goal. Colorado just got shut out at home by a mid-tier Big Ten team in Minnesota. That win is no longer impressive enough for me to think they survive the SEC with any fewer than 2 losses which will eliminate them from the playoffs. Cincinnati though is the wild card, and in a weird way I think they’ll make the playoff if they finish undefeated. Here’s my logic on that, the power conferences will want to keep the 4 team playoff, especially now that Oklahoma and Texas are set to join the SEC. That move opened the door for Cincinnati to join the Big 12. That context matters, if Cincinnati goes undefeated and there are only 2 Power 5 conference teams that remain undefeated, and a Georgia/Alabama one loss team remain ahead of them, Cincy will make the playoffs. This gives the playoff committee a chance to claim they allowed a Group of 5 team to make the playoffs. False hope. Cincinnati at this point is a Power 5 team, but still in the American Conference. It prevents playoff expansion and gives the look that Group of 5 teams have a path to the playoffs.
Rounding out the current top 10 are Clemson and Ohio State, which were already covered.
It’s only week 4 in the season and the playoff framework seems to be set. The fun thing about College Football though is that any given week an upset can happen. The best part about this year is that we’ve already seen two of the powerhouses from the past couple years fall. They’ve still got two months to make up for those, but the climb back is hard and unlikely. I’m thinking a new cycle is around, and Cincinnati will be the new blue blood out of the Big 12, once Oklahoma and Texas leave. It’s a new era, and anything can happen.