There’s a saying in hockey that the 2 goal lead is the worst lead in sports. Basically it’s the black dot superstition from the pirate days. It’s the kiss of death. Really though, when you look at the stats, a 2 goal lead is better than a 1 goal lead but not as good as a 3 goal lead. But sports are full of superstition, coincidences, and story lines. This isn’t meant to be taken as a serious statement that a 7 run lead in baseball is just as deadly as a 2 goal lead, likely the stats prove 7 runs are better than 6 runs and not as good as 8, logical progression. However, yesterday was one of those days that was a coincidence and a story line. If it happens again in another week or so it might be start working into a superstition. Then eventually a common saying.
It started in the afternoon, the Cubs peppered the Brewers for 7 runs in the first inning. A prophetic voice from the radio, Bob Ueker, warned fans not to get worried because the Brewers have yet to bat. In the bottom of the first they chipped away at the lead. Another couple innings later, the Brewers continued to chip away at the lead, and the Cubs did nothing. Then the Brewers blew up on offense, putting up a snowman in an inning – 8 runs and eventually blew out the game.
Then in possibly the most anticipated game of the day – Ohtani pitching and leading off for the Angels in Yankee stadium. It was lackluster, he didn’t even make it out of the first inning. The Yankees put up, you guessed it 7 runs. The game was a weird one, the first two innings lasted nearly as long as games lasted in the 1930s – something like 70 minutes. Then, a couple innings later they had a nice break for rain, lasting over 40 minutes. The story was the same, the Angels chipped away at the lead. But unlike the slumping Cubs, the Yankees were able to put up another run for a little extra insurance. It took away a save opportunity for Chapman to close out the game for the first time in over a week. It wasn’t a good outing, the Angels blew up the scoreboard and even put the first grand slam conceded by Chapman in his career. Early into the morning, the Angels put up 7 runs on the scoreboard and closed out with the win.
Baseball is a funny game, trends happen, firsts happen even after 150+ seasons – yesterday the Trea Turner was the first player to hit for the cycle on his birthday. This though, is something different. It’s obviously a new trend. It has nothing to do with the Brewers surging in a hot streak and the Cubs slumping. It had nothing to do with a long layoff from a rain delay and a top tier closer in the midst of his worst slump of his career. This is the new worst lead in sports – 7 runs in the first. Alright, that’s obviously a bit hyperbolic. You see this in every sport, race out to a big lead early and your opponent will be lulled to sleep. The normally laser focus you get in a close game falls off. Bad habits come though. Human nature kicks in and you assume everything will be as easy as it was to start. I’ve struggled through plenty of terrible Timberwolves seasons and there’s definitely been times this was their best strategy. Let the other team take a big lead and then come back hard. It’s a formula that will get you 10-20 wins in 100. It’s not a thing, but it’s funny when it happens twice in the same day – and oddly with the exact same score. Baseball is funny sometimes.